Pass rate prediction for 2017 changes?

  • Creator
    Topic
  • #1405275
    bigcore20
    Participant

    So I’ve heard a lot of discussion about how the pass rates will be significantly lower (for at least the first year) starting Q2 with the new changes. It seems like they’re adding more sims in general, and a whole new set in BEC. Sims seem to be the reason most people end up failing, so why would the AICPA make it so much harder, especially since a lot of baby boomer CPAs are retiring? Are they trying to steer people away from the license to reduce saturation?

Viewing 11 replies - 1 through 11 (of 11 total)
  • Author
    Replies
  • #1405302
    jeff
    Keymaster

    5 points less per exam…average of 45%-ish

    AUD - 79
    BEC - 80
    FAR - 76
    REG - 92
    Jeff Elliott, CPA (KS)
    NINJA CPA | NINJA CMA | NINJA CPE | Another71
    #1405311
    bigcore20
    Participant

    @Jeff – So there's a chance for sub 40% pass rates for FAR and AUD. Damn… Good luck all

    #1405347
    jeff
    Keymaster

    Nothing less than 43%…shooting from the hip.

    AUD - 79
    BEC - 80
    FAR - 76
    REG - 92
    Jeff Elliott, CPA (KS)
    NINJA CPA | NINJA CMA | NINJA CPE | Another71
    #1405349
    jeff
    Keymaster

    I've been studying pass rates (sad, I know) for 8 or 9 years…I could be completely off – but that's my semi-educated guess.

    AUD - 79
    BEC - 80
    FAR - 76
    REG - 92
    Jeff Elliott, CPA (KS)
    NINJA CPA | NINJA CMA | NINJA CPE | Another71
    #1405358
    Gary
    Participant

    How did the scores change the last time the exam was completely changed? Has that happened in the last decade?

    AUD - 89
    BEC - 84
    FAR - 89
    REG - 90
    AUD - 89

    FAR - 89

    BEC - 84

    REG - 90

    YES!

    AUD 8/18/16
    FAR 11/16
    BEC 1/17
    REG 2/17

    #1405361
    RE2PECT
    Participant

    I'm gonna go ahead and say 42-44%. BEC will no longer be the highest with the addition of sims. I'm thinking AUD will become the highest pass rate under the new format.

    Jeff, I made a thread about it, but never received any responses. Are there any stats for all score releases in a particular window? I've only found stats for the whole quarter, but not for each score release. Curious to see if there's any kind of pattern.

    "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity."

    Roger & Ninja

    FAR: 75
    AUD: 73, 81
    BEC: 71, 73, 82
    REG: 68, 82

    FAR: 75 Roger & Ninja (notes/flashcards/audio/MCQ)
    AUD: 73, 81
    BEC: 71, retake 8/29
    REG:

    #1405712
    Trele6
    Participant

    @re2pect, I'm not so sure that AUD will flip from the lowest passed test to the highest. BEC's pass rate for sure will dip below 50% but it still might hold the title as “easiest”, but then again who knows what a BEC SIM will look like.

    AUD is the hardest to pass right now in the current format and it probably isn't going to get any easier.

    B - 80 Jun16
    A - 74 Aug16, 77 Oct16
    R - 87 Nov15
    F - 79 Apr16
    Ethics - 98 Nov16
    Licensed in New Mexico Dec16

    First go at the CPA! Only using Becker
    Reg / Nov 2015 - 87
    Far / Apr 2016 - 79
    Bec / May 2016 - 80
    Aud / Aug 2016

    #1405778
    aaronmo
    Participant

    I would imagine a BEC sim would like cost accounting questions; variances, tracking movement of inventory into COGS. Stuff with break even analysis…maybe some financial ratios…maybe something with econ multiplier effects.

    AUD - 96
    BEC - 84
    FAR - 89
    REG - 86
    Aaron and always remember, YMMV

    I profit from your CPE frustration. You're welcome.

    #1405781
    aaronmo
    Participant

    Something with debit/credits the flow of inventory.

    AUD - 96
    BEC - 84
    FAR - 89
    REG - 86
    Aaron and always remember, YMMV

    I profit from your CPE frustration. You're welcome.

    #1405787
    jeff
    Keymaster

    The stats did about what I've predicted back in 2010/11 with IFRS and the WCs being moved to BEC…3-5 point-ish drop initially and then people get used to it.

    As far as stats by score release – the AICPA doesn't disclose that to my knowledge.

    AUD - 79
    BEC - 80
    FAR - 76
    REG - 92
    Jeff Elliott, CPA (KS)
    NINJA CPA | NINJA CMA | NINJA CPE | Another71
    #1406159
    jms10101
    Participant

    Somewhat on point but a little off, the good news for those who pass the CPA exam and get the license, the demand for CPA's is not declining that I know about and the supply of CPA's will drop (lower passing scores combined with attrition of CPA's = higher overall wages for those that do make their CPA.) This should provide a little motivation for candidates.

    AUD - 94
    BEC - 81
    FAR - 77
    REG - 88
    First Time Pass. No Failures on the Exams.
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